How Boston’s odds have moved to start the 2024 season

May 7th, 2024

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.

Through 35 games (or roughly 21%) of the 2024 MLB season, the Boston Red Sox have played winning baseball. They are 19-16 on the year.

While it’s certainly too early to watch the scoreboard, Boston is third in a competitive American League East. The Red Sox are 4 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles and just one game out of the final Wild Card spot.

But what's truly intriguing is the shift in odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

While some markets have seen the odds on the Red Sox lengthen, others have moved in Boston’s favor, sparking curiosity about the team’s future performance.

The Red Sox were +2000 to win the American League East in the preseason, meaning a $10 bet would net a $200 payout. At those odds, they had an implied probability of 4.8%.

Boston is now +1600 to win the division, which is suitable for a whole point jump in implied probability at 5.9%. The team still trails all four other teams in this market, including the New York Yankees (+110 to win the AL East) and the Orioles (+140).

FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Red Sox a 2.8% chance of claiming the AL East crown.

Speaking of postseason odds, the Red Sox are +340 (22.7%) to make the playoffs after having a +260 value in the spring. FanGraphs gives Boston a 28.6% chance of notching its first postseason berth since 2021.

In FanGraphs’ latest projections, the Red Sox are expected to finish fourth in the division with 81.5 wins.

For comparison, the Red Sox entered the year as -115 favorites to place fifth with a win total of 77.5 at BetMGM.

The baseball season is long, and a lot can happen the rest of the way, but the betting market continues to adjust to the Red Sox.

Visit the BetMGM sportsbook throughout the season for updated MLB futures, including World Series odds. You can also view updated sportsbook promos, including a First Bet Offer for eligible new customers.